Puerto Rico Compass ©

Q4 2009: US Recovers, But What About Puerto Rico?

An analysis of 2009 Q4 economic indices in PR

A lackluster 2009 is over. Global growth fell from 3.0% in 2008 to –1.1% in 2009 –the first outright decline of world GDP since the IMF began collecting the data in 1970. The recession in the US appears to have ended by Q4 of 2009. The key issue now is the shape of the impending recovery. There is an alphabet of possibilities. The pessimists fear a “W,” or perhaps an “L,” where the economy simply bounces along the bottom for a while. The optimists say the US economy typically bounces back robustly with a “V-shape.” The consensus seems to expect a solid, but less spectacular “U-shaped” recovery. In contrast, there is no recovery yet in Puerto Rico. The forecast is a more feeble “U-shaped” recovery. Structural issues in our economy, an unclear growth strategy, and ongoing banking problems are part of the problem. On the bright side, unemployment and car sales portrayed some improvement at the end of the quarter. Find out how other indicators performed in Q4 of 2009.