Puerto Rico Compass ©
By H. Calero Consulting Group Puerto Rico Compass© • • • • • • • • • • 0 Comments

1Q-2017 Leading Us into a Disaster?

Analysis of Puerto Rico’s Q1-2017 Economic Indices

The PR Oversight Board started to put pressure on the PR government. It is in search of results related to savings, cuts, and efficiencies in the PR government. The Administration has both hands full dealing with budget, reports, and measures with deadlines imposed by the Board. Perhaps for this reason, it seems the PR government has not engaged in a proactive role to restore growth. Instead, it appears Governor Rosselló and all the heads of agencies and public corporations are reacting to the Board’s increasing requirements. Whatever the magnitude of the measures, i.e. $120 mn or more than $500 mn cuts to the UPR budget, it is clear those are recessionary fiscal policies. The external sector, specially oil prices and interest rates, is changing rapidly, heading to a more challenging environment. This issue analyzes some risks in the future and why the Board and the PR government should take bold actions to spur growth instead of following an accountant approach to reach the Fiscal Plan targets.

By H. Calero Consulting Group Puerto Rico Compass© • • • • • • • • • • • 0 Comments

Q1 2016: Uphill All the Way in Puerto Rico

An analysis of 1st. Quarter 2016 economic indices

Puerto Rico is now in its tenth year of economic recession, which it started in 2006. The fiscal crisis, which has played center stage in the past administrations, has been defined by a failure to provide effective governance and leadership in response to serious economic challenges. The fiscal crisis has not gone away and the harsh tax increases have been compounded by a migration crisis. Q1 in 2016 was plagued with uncertainty, fueled by: government’s inability to pay its public debt, suppliers, reimbursements to taxpayers, fear of job losses at GDB, poor retail sales performance, and an unsympathetic US Congress intent on enforcing a Fiscal Control Board over Puerto Rico with unknown implications. Among all these uncertainties, only one thing is certain: the future will be uphill all the way and at significant political and economic cost. This issue examines the performance of our six quarterly indices, which depict an economy in trouble.

Puerto Rico Compass ©
By H. Calero Consulting Group Puerto Rico Compass© • • • • • • • • 0 Comments

Q3 2014: Puerto Rico, The Sum of its Parts

An analysis of 3rd Quarter 2014 economic indices in PR

Puerto Rico’s economic situation raises serious questions about the capacity of policymakers to get the situation under control. Third quarter indices reveal a mixed picture. The economy continues to be stagnant. Full recovery will depend not only on internal but also on external factors originating in the US and other global economies. There is increasing dissatisfaction with local economic policies, escalating electricity prices, and persistently high unemployment. These factors, together with safety concerns and pessimism about the economic future have motivated mass migration to the US. Government has focused principally on the island’s fiscal issues, including liquidity concerns regarding the Government Development Bank (GDB). However, a perfectly balanced budget will mean nothing amidst a devastated economy. This issue addresses the urgent v. important economic issues and tracks the 3Q of the PR economy.