Tag: Newsletter

To the surprise of many analysts, published figures revealed the economy ended fiscal 1998 with more fizz than a flute of champagne. Real GNP grew 3.1%, a bigger rise than previous forecasts of 2.5% to 2.7%. The question is how soon in 1999 will the economy’s effervescence fade. A review of the year’s top economic news provides some answers. Construction rolled at high speed. Consumers, burdened by debt, the aftermath of Hurricane Georges, and more than 5% inflation, were not on a spending spree. Manufacturers reported strong exports, but overall job markets were weak. Banks continued merging in the hope of maintaining and improving earnings. All in all, the economy in 1998 was one of mixed results in the face of many potential pitfalls, at home and abroad.

On December 13, 1998, Puerto Ricans held a plebiscite to decide on the political options of statehood, commonwealth, associate republic, and independence.  The majority voted for “none of the above.”  Thus, the issue remains unresolved.  Since politics is intertwined with economics, informed decisions on status must start by asking how each option affects federal aid programs, taxes, investment, employment, and the size of the local government.  Find out what the convergence theory means and how other factors, besides status, allowed PR to grow faster than the US for a while.  Finally, the article challenges the reader to decide on the best option.

There is an extraordinary amount of energy in construction today, some of it optimistic, some bewildering. During 1997, the construction boom in PR accounted for almost half the 3.2% real growth of the economy. Is this sustainable? Public construction concentrated on infrastructure projects, instead of public housing. Private construction concentrated on housing, instead of industrial and commercial building.  In the SJ metro area, industrial construction shrank 47%. Paradox: the commercial space grew a hefty 26%, while retail sales increased by 8%. Sounds like shopping space overbuilding?  As consumer debt and the number of bankruptcies continue climbing, retail activity will lack luster. Manufacturing downsizing will not spur an increase in the demand for industrial space. This article addresses the issue of whether a continuation of this mix will increase productive capacity, which means future growth.

On September 21, 1998, Hurricane Georges hard hit Puerto Rico. The imprint of this natural disaster is visible, not only on the transformation of our landscape but also on the thousands of families and businesses, who lost property and revenues.  What is the extent of the damage and how should it be assessed? For instance, the loss of capital is an important damage but GNP figures do not register this loss. What are the economic consequences for the rest of the year? Will the emergency aid, insurance payments, loans, and increased construction activity boost the economy during fiscal years 1999 and 2000? Is Georges our only risk or is the Asian crisis a worst disaster still to hit the island? This article addresses all these questions and provides revised forecasts for real GNP growth for 1999 and 2000 respectively.  Inflation and unemployment will increase further as we break into the millennium.

Puerto Rico was given ten years to restructure its economy. With the phase out of Section 936 by year 2006, Puerto Rico worries that manufacturing, currently 41% of GDP, could pass into the hands of other, lower cost, emerging markets in Latin America, Europe, and Asia. Though this may be true, major breakthroughs in biotechnology, MEMs, nanotechnology will begin to create entire new industries over the next ten years!  Europe and the US are poised for further growth and sources of investment for PR and other countries. This issue addresses how PR could avoid a manufacturing meltdown and what instruments it must add to its development toolkit.

The devaluation of Asian currencies has made Asian products, excluding China, more inexpensive for foreigners.  China, who has avoided devaluating the yuan, is losing some ground in the export battlefield.  The stability of China’s currency has kept the US stock market afloat and the US dollar not too costly.  This issue explores why China desperately needs to stimulate its economy and how some of its policies may affect Puerto Rico’s exports, leading us into the next recession.

For most modern, fast growing economies, human resources have become the engine driving its present and future development.  During the past decades, Puerto Rico’s workforce has been either unemployed or plainly discouraged. Historically, the island’s participation rate has been below 50% and unemployment rates have hovered around the 14% to 16% levels. Trends in human resources indicate a shift away from manufacturing and into services. What types of jobs will be required and how will our education meet the challenges? This issue looks at some of the factors explaining the survival of the working age population without a job and how education will shape the outlook for the future.
(See Special Edition on 9/00.)

Privatization is the trend.  Still, 22% of the $32 billion GNP in 1997 was bought by the government, excluding the public corporations. It hires 23% of the 1.1 million employees and invests heavily on construction.  The average government sector worldwide consumes 15% of GNP.  Does this pose a problem for the island? This issue looks at the size of Puerto Rico’s public debt, which amounted to $20.7 billion as of February 1998.  It analyzes the fiscal moderation mechanisms imposed by our constitution and how it appears to be by-passed with the growth of extra-constitutional debt. Contents of this issue provide answers as to the size, growth, and sectors this debt is financing.

The 45% increase in bankruptcy filings in 1997 and the continuation of this pattern appears to indicate our level of indebtedness is beyond reasonable limits.  This phenomenon has raised concerns regarding the health of our economy.  However, this trend is not unique to Puerto Rico and in fact, there are more bankruptcies per capita in the US than in PR.  Explanation of this surge in bankruptcies is not as simple as over-consumption.  Contents of this issue explore consumer confidence and baby boom demographics among the main factors behind this trend.

As fiscal 1998 unfolds, alarming events in the PR economy have taken place, threatening lower economic growth in 1998 and 1999.  Forty-nine manufacturing companies have either announced or closed operations on the island, a reduction of almost 7,000 jobs.  American Airlines announced its decision to move its hub to Miami.  Chase Manhattan Bank sold its loan portfolio to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya and will thereby close its operations in Puerto Rico.  Contents of this issue assesses the behavior of the economy in fiscal 1997 and the impact of these events on the future growth rates of real GNP, exports, investment, consumption, government expenditures, unemployment, and inflation, among others.