Description

How can this study help you?

In the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, inspiration can be difficult to find in Puerto Rico, a US territory where daily headlines are negative and politics remain divisive. Quality decision making has never been more important and, unfortunately, at times, difficult to find. However, business opportunities will emerge as the Island restructures its economic foundations and institutional landscape.

We believe we can help identify those opportunities

The study examines five core areas that are set to determine PR’s outlook and likely performance. Just as important, we can bring value to your decision making process by helping you gain a deeper insight into PR’s emerging risk profile.

Five questions lead the discussion:

1. How large is the devastation caused by Maria in comparison with other natural disasters?
2. What will it take to rebuild its physical infrastructure and how will government reorganize itself?
3. What are the possible scenarios for payment of PR’s public debt?
4. What is the path forward with macroeconomic scenarios in the short (1 yr.), medium (3 yrs.), and long term (5 yrs.)?
5. Where have the new business opportunities landed?

Long-Term Scenarios allow us to look beyond short-term factors and to focus on the fundamentals that will support or limit GNP growth, consumer spending, industrial production, jobs, and inflation. The study will be enhanced with a PowerPoint presentation of key findings and it is free of charge with the pre-sale subscription.

Specific topics covered:

1. Magnitude of damages and statistics of disaster relief from FEMA, federal and local governments caused by Hurricanes Hugo (1989) and Georges (1998). Analysis of the historical behavior of main macroeconomic variables in PR before and after Hurricanes Hugo (1989) and Georges (1998). Includes tables, graphs, and statistical tests that indicate length of recovery after such events.
2. Implications of a broken infrastructure in communications, electricity, water, airports, ports, telecommunications, among others.
3. Impact on agriculture, manufacturing, and services, including health.
4. Analysis of payment of PR’s public debt
5. Impact on government restructuring and possibly new role for municipalities
6. New role of PROMESA’s Fiscal Control Board in Puerto Rico.
7. Estimate of economic damages of Hurricane Maria in PR using historical information from Hugo and Georges but adjusted for inflation and preliminary figures that have been reported by several agencies as well as the Multiplier Index of Potential Damages of the US National Weather Service. HCCG’s estimates of damages will be validated by comparing them with available estimates of insurance companies and Bloomberg.
8. Short term (1 year), medium term (3 years) and long term (5 years) forecast scenarios for principal economic variables, such as, GNP real growth, real investment in construction, machinery and equipment, consumption, government spending, exports, imports, retail sales, unemployment, migration, and population using HCCG’s macroeconomic model.
9. New business opportunities. These will cover the range of the economy, both within the private and public sectors, including municipalities, as well as sector specific market gaps.

Why you should get it

After the devastation of Hurricane María, today’s business climate in Pureto Rico feels hazardous with economic uncertainty and threats to stability that seem to increase by the day. This study is designed for business, investors, and others interested in Puerto Rico to understand the magnitude of economic damages on the island and help you manage, minimize risk, and look ahead.

Price includes 4% B2B tax