Puerto Rico Economic Pulse ©
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Apr 2017: An Open Letter to a Nobel Prize

On Joseph Stiglitz’s reading of the Puerto Rico Economy

Puerto Rico recently welcomed Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Prize in economics in 2001 and a renowned expert on the US and world economies. During a conference in Puerto Rico on April 6 of this year, Stiglitz addressed and lectured a large audience on the long-lasting fiscal and economic crisis of the Island. His presentation included the most recent episodes of worldwide fiscal crisis and debt restructuring. He also underscored the urgent need to get Puerto Rico back on the path of economic growth, something with which we all agree. However, as useful as this analysis might appear, Stiglitz failed to gauge whether his general recommendations were applicable in the very particular and complex economic context of Puerto Rico. This issue of Pulse analyzes some of Stiglitz’s conclusions and provides alternative explanations.

Economic Forecast
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Mar 2017: Sink or Swim Puerto Rico

Analysis of PR’s performance in 2016 & forecast for 2017 – 2019
Today, after 11 years of economic recession, external and internal events pose further challenges to the Puerto Rico economy. China’s deceleration, the exit of UK from the European Community, Trumps’ election in the US, and terrorist attacks in 2016 do not augur strong external demand for PR’s exports in coming years. The establishment of the Financial Oversight and Management Board (FOMB), a euphemism for a control board, in PR was the most important event in 2016, together with the election of Governor Rossello. In a time of uncertainty, peering 3 years into the future may seem a daunting task. It is, but, ignoring trends—demographic, economic, corporate—is not an option. Understanding the immediate future in PR is vital in ensuring that business and hopefully, government strategies are sustainable, that opportunities are identified, and that challenges are addressed to exit stagnation. This Pulse explores recent economic events in 2016 and forecasts 2017 thru 2019.

Puerto Rico Compass ©
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1Q-2017 Leading Us into a Disaster?

Analysis of Puerto Rico’s Q1-2017 Economic Indices

The PR Oversight Board started to put pressure on the PR government. It is in search of results related to savings, cuts, and efficiencies in the PR government. The Administration has both hands full dealing with budget, reports, and measures with deadlines imposed by the Board. Perhaps for this reason, it seems the PR government has not engaged in a proactive role to restore growth. Instead, it appears Governor Rosselló and all the heads of agencies and public corporations are reacting to the Board’s increasing requirements. Whatever the magnitude of the measures, i.e. $120 mn or more than $500 mn cuts to the UPR budget, it is clear those are recessionary fiscal policies. The external sector, specially oil prices and interest rates, is changing rapidly, heading to a more challenging environment. This issue analyzes some risks in the future and why the Board and the PR government should take bold actions to spur growth instead of following an accountant approach to reach the Fiscal Plan targets.

Puerto Rico Economic Pulse ©
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Feb 2017: Greek Lessons on the Impact of Austerity

What can happen when austerity is the only remedy in place
The Greek economic crisis, just like PR’s, was a long time in the making. What began as a credit crisis in 2008 became a social and economic chaos in two years, with austerity measures fueling a negative feedback loop that is still ongoing. The crisis was amplified by prior conditions on the ground, such as, widespread tax evasion, tampering of official statistics, and relentless political pressure from all sides. By 2014, the economic consequences of the process were becoming irreversible with widespread questioning of the need for austerity measures. Since then, many lessons have been drawn, most importantly, that the need for austerity must not override the need for future growth and development. Otherwise, the fiscal policy risks becoming self-defeating as fiscal accounts may never regain sustainability. Puerto Rico must do everything to avoid this trap.

Puerto Rico Compass ©
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4Q-2016 Industry Leaders React to New Policies

4Q-2016 industry analysis and PR Administration policies
This edition of Puerto Rico Economic Compass, analyzes the 4Q-2016 economic indices and includes an industry analysis of the PR economy plus economic policies proposed by the new Administration. The elected governor, Ricardo Roselló and the PROMESA Fiscal Oversight Board have certainly altered expectations for 2017. New executive orders, approval of sweeping labor legislation, and continued dialogue with the PROMESA Board regarding key recommendations to be implemented in the near term, have raised both praise and criticism by several industry sectors. For instance, the recently approved Labor Reform Act has been praised and promoted by several industry and retail employers but has met a backlash from many in the labor movement. No doubt, the new government has been very busy trying to adopt and implement the fiscal and economic plan demanded by the PROMESA board since last December. What’s the rest of the story?
Puerto Rico Economic Pulse ©
By H. Calero Consulting Group Puerto Rico Economic Pulse© • • • • • • • • • • • 0 Comments

Jan 2017: A Needle Hard to Thread

The challenges of health and PROMESA for Puerto Rico
A new year has arrived and brought with it a series of complex issues that require immediate attention. The US Congress mandated fiscal supervisory Board under PROMESA is dealing with PR’s fiscal and economic crisis. Health is one of the priorities as well as payment of PR’s public debt. With the upcoming repeal of Obamacare in the US, Puerto Rico faces a shortfall of almost $1 billion in federal funds for the public healthcare system, putting thousands of Puerto Ricans at risk. The Board is just starting to demand quick action from the new government by establishing a dialogue and trying to expedite under a tight timeline the process of certifying a sustainable fiscal plan that would restore fiscal discipline, provide access to financial markets, pay the public debt, and bring economic growth to PR over the next decade. But, will it succeed? Amidst all these priorities is Puerto Rico’s healthcare plan for the medically indigent. Find out what has happened since started on September 1993 and what lies ahead in the immediate future for PR.