Puerto Rico Compass ©

Q1 2010: Curb your Enthusiasm

An analysis of 1st Quarter 2010 economic indices in PR

At the start of 2010, many were hoping to leave behind the longest recession in recent history in Puerto Rico. During the 1st Q of 2010, there are some signs of improvement in consumption, but we hasten to add that there are many structural problems that still worry us. Some of these bewildering trends include: the situation of the banking industry, the island’s huge public debt, a troubled PR Retirement System, and a low labor participation rate, among others. Consumer and producer sentiments do impact economic activity so perceptions are just as important as hard-core economic data. In this context, clear and credible economic policies adopted by the public sector can play a leading role in economic recovery in PR. This issue examines how recent developments both in and outside Puerto Rico have impacted the HCCG indices and how upcoming events could influence the economy in the near future.

Puerto Rico Economic Pulse ©

March 2010: Many Headwinds Still Ahead

Performance of the PR and US economies in fiscal 2009 and forecasts to 2012

Fiscal 2009 marked a milestone with the harshest worldwide economic crisis since the Great Depression. The crumble of several financial giants at the end of 2008 sparked a crisis that ripped through the entire world with unknown strength.  Recovery has already started in the US mainland, but jitter and fear have not disappeared. Puerto Rico has also felt the heat and is immersed in a protracted slump that threatens to extend to five consecutive years.  The truth is that the PR economy remains off the path of sustainable growth and desperately needs to restore growth.  Some meager gains, mostly as a result of temporary inflows from the mainland, could mislead the public regarding the dismal situation of our economy. This issue of Pulse analyzes what really lies beneath the recent glimmer of hopes. It evaluates economic events in fiscal 2009 and presents our forecasts thru fiscal 2012.