Puerto Rico Compass ©

Q4 2009: US Recovers, But What About Puerto Rico?

An analysis of 2009 Q4 economic indices in PR

A lackluster 2009 is over. Global growth fell from 3.0% in 2008 to –1.1% in 2009 –the first outright decline of world GDP since the IMF began collecting the data in 1970. The recession in the US appears to have ended by Q4 of 2009. The key issue now is the shape of the impending recovery. There is an alphabet of possibilities. The pessimists fear a “W,” or perhaps an “L,” where the economy simply bounces along the bottom for a while. The optimists say the US economy typically bounces back robustly with a “V-shape.” The consensus seems to expect a solid, but less spectacular “U-shaped” recovery. In contrast, there is no recovery yet in Puerto Rico. The forecast is a more feeble “U-shaped” recovery. Structural issues in our economy, an unclear growth strategy, and ongoing banking problems are part of the problem. On the bright side, unemployment and car sales portrayed some improvement at the end of the quarter. Find out how other indicators performed in Q4 of 2009.

Puerto Rico Economic Pulse ©

December 2009: PPPs are the Government’s New Strategy

A look at this initiative to end the recession in PR

Governor Fortuño has selected the Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to redirect PR’s economic development strategy and steer the island out of its current 3-year old recession. PPPs are forecast to create 99,735 new jobs and attract $6.2 billion investments thru 2013. Will this strategy work? Mega projects such as the Caribbean Riviera in the old Roosevelt Roads navy facility and the Science City in the old penitentiary rely on private partners for financing. Betting on PPPs, implies big gains or catastrophic losses for Puerto Rico. This issue of PR Pulse analyzes the PPP concept. It aims to answer how these partnerships have worked in other countries; successes and failures; economic sectors and countries that have used them successfully or why they have failed. Find out the challenges facing PPPs in PR and what can be done to leave behind the current recession.