Puerto Rico Economic Pulse ©

Jun 2017: So, what’s the Plan for Puerto Rico?

Assessment of Fiscal Plan’s questionable elements
Tensions seem to be flaring between the Fiscal Oversight Supervisory Board (Board), designated per PROMESA law, and the Government of PR as the reality of a steep decline in nominal GNP growth in the Island begins to materialize through the new budget’s fiscal discipline measures. The Fiscal Plan, submitted by the Governor of PR and approved by the Board, charts the route ahead. As more details became available, different groups have become more vocal in criticizing the approved Fiscal Plan (FP). Underlying these concerns are several questions, such as: Will the Fiscal Plan spur investment and economic growth? Are the measures included in the FP enough to restore fiscal discipline and return to a growth path? Are the FP’s assumptions correct? Does the FP adequately asses economic impact? This issue attempts to answer some of these questions from the standpoint of bondholders, renowned economists, government officials, and HCCG.

Puerto Rico Economic Pulse ©

Apr 2017: An Open Letter to a Nobel Prize

On Joseph Stiglitz’s reading of the Puerto Rico Economy

Puerto Rico recently welcomed Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Prize in economics in 2001 and a renowned expert on the US and world economies. During a conference in Puerto Rico on April 6 of this year, Stiglitz addressed and lectured a large audience on the long-lasting fiscal and economic crisis of the Island. His presentation included the most recent episodes of worldwide fiscal crisis and debt restructuring. He also underscored the urgent need to get Puerto Rico back on the path of economic growth, something with which we all agree. However, as useful as this analysis might appear, Stiglitz failed to gauge whether his general recommendations were applicable in the very particular and complex economic context of Puerto Rico. This issue of Pulse analyzes some of Stiglitz’s conclusions and provides alternative explanations.

Puerto Rico Compass ©

4Q-2016 Industry Leaders React to New Policies

4Q-2016 industry analysis and PR Administration policies
This edition of Puerto Rico Economic Compass, analyzes the 4Q-2016 economic indices and includes an industry analysis of the PR economy plus economic policies proposed by the new Administration. The elected governor, Ricardo Roselló and the PROMESA Fiscal Oversight Board have certainly altered expectations for 2017. New executive orders, approval of sweeping labor legislation, and continued dialogue with the PROMESA Board regarding key recommendations to be implemented in the near term, have raised both praise and criticism by several industry sectors. For instance, the recently approved Labor Reform Act has been praised and promoted by several industry and retail employers but has met a backlash from many in the labor movement. No doubt, the new government has been very busy trying to adopt and implement the fiscal and economic plan demanded by the PROMESA board since last December. What’s the rest of the story?
Puerto Rico Economic Pulse ©

Nov 2016: Reality Check for Puerto Rico’s Fiscal Plan

Success will depend on the premises it makes
The government’s latest version of its fiscal and economic growth plan has come under close scrutiny since being submitted to the Financial Oversight & Management Control Board (FOMCB) for PR.  Some critics have pointed to its lack of policy specifics while others have scorned the fact that it does not contain a debt sustainability analysis while resting on additional federal funding. The PR fiscal plan (FP) has various technical points and assumptions that have also been singled out. The plan’s viability, regardless of the gaps, will ultimately depend on the validity of its assumptions. Policy makers must find a way to boost PR’s long-term potential output first but the appointed board may want to restructure public debt obligation first. Growing the economy will ensure that the future roadmap rests on credible future income flows. This edition of the Pulse takes a look at the fundamental assumptions behind the fiscal plan.