The Economic Consequences of Less People
An analysis of the wrong direction of causality

Puerto Rico’s current economic situation, just like that of any country, reflects both temporary and long-term effects. Many of the long-term economic processes, in turn, are supported by what economists call “structural” variables. These are variables that determine the type of economic activity and the manner in which it takes place. During the last decade, Puerto Rico witnessed a significant change in one such variable—population—coupled with an unprecedented economic downturn. The Island lost significant income, wealth and people. In peacetime, and barring any major natural disaster, such events are far from the norm, although they are not unusual. This issue of the Pulse, the fifth installment of a series dedicated to analyze PR’s population shift, will examine the socioeconomic dynamics that took place during the last decade with particular emphasis on demographic data for all municipalities in Puerto Rico. The results will surprise you.

January 2012

Charting the Year in Puerto Rico
What the economic indices tell us in 4th Quarter 2011

Nowadays, recovery is the most wanted outcome in the US and PR. Usually, signs of early growth show up in consumer spending, housing, and construction. This time around, these sectors have been the last to recover in the US. Instead, the US economy is showing signs of recovery on the production side. Manufacturing and business investment have led the way, driving down the unemployment rate. For some economists, that improvement may finally lead to improved consumer spending in the US. The relevant question for us is whether PR shows signs of a production side recovery or if trends in consumer spending, housing, and construction in the island speak of a consumer side recovery? HCCG’s indices for the 4thQ can provide some answers and chart the performance of CY 2011.

4th Quarter 2011

Inside the Puerto Rico Economy offers you:

• a hard cover book, in full color, with a quick reference into multiple topics, tables, and graphs on demographics, tourism, manufacturing, government, banking, construction, among others;

• analysis of issues, both immediate and long-term, to which Puerto Rico will have to face up if its prosperity is to be ensured and its economic growth re-continued;

• 120 short economic essays of the publication Puerto Rico Economic Pulse, prepared monthly by H. Calero Consulting Group since 1998 to the present.

One-of-a-kind publication. Authoritative and absorbing, it is designed to help you understand Puerto Rico’s economy better and to witness an eye-opening experience.