Puerto Rico Economic Pulse ©

June 2002: The Bitter Side of Development

Macroeconomic and Fiscal Impact of Population Trends

As the 2000 population census has confirmed, Puerto Rico is undergoing a demographic transformation. Following the pattern of developed countries, the Puerto Rican population is aging. In this article we will address this interesting phenomenon, which is a clear proof that development is not just about prosperity and also has its bitter side. Let`s briefly review the evolution of the island`s population over the last half century and analyze its economic and social consequences in the short as well as the long run. Find out how an aging population can exhaust fiscal revenues; how health and other related services will be more demanding on already finite resources.

Puerto Rico Economic Pulse ©

May 2002: The Challenging Budget Picture

Economic Impact of the Budget – Part II

Revenues are key to a budget. Without them there can be no budget, and how to obtain them particularly in times of economic constraints such as now, presents a challenge. The previous issue analyzed how the Government of Puerto Rico got into a structural imbalance. Combined with the economic slowdown, this situation has generated a shortfall of revenues. Both the Executive and Legislative branches have been proposing new sources of revenues. A key issue in the proposed budget for fiscal 2002-03 is how to obtain $596 million in additional revenues. The bulk of the discussion focused on proposed significant increases in excise taxes on alcoholic beverages, cigarettes, and selected types of autos. Find out how increases on alcoholic beverages will impact the economy and how the government refused a better alternative.

Puerto Rico Economic Pulse ©

April 2002: The Moving Target, Part I

An Analysis of the PR Government Budget for fiscal year 2003

Last February, Governor Calderón unveiled her Consolidated Budget for Fiscal Year 2003. It calls for significant increases on excise taxes on vehicles, alcoholic beverages, and cigarettes. All these measures will impact economic activity, you and I as taxpayers and consumers. Puerto Rico is not the only jurisdiction fighting budget deficits. According to a March report by the Association of State Budget Officers, 40 of the 50 states are facing shortfalls in their revenues. Thus, healthy fiscal budgets, here or in the states, will lag a year or more behind economic recovery. Find out how the budget is spent, where the money comes from, what are the priorities, and how the problem of debt financing has affected it.

Puerto Rico Economic Pulse ©

March 2002: The Road Back to Recovery

An Analysis of the Puerto Rico Economy and Outlook for 2002 and 2003

Fiscal year 2001 marked the beginning of an economic slowdown in Puerto Rico. After a decade of high growth rates, the economy cast clear signs of decelerating. The performance of the Puerto Rico economy was not divorced from the US economic cycle. The Island posted the lowest real growth since 1992. But the worst was still to come. The tragic events of September 11 put both economies on the verge of recession, thereby backing the belief that the Island economy is tied to the US. Find out what happened in 2001 and whether the economy is in a recession in 2002? And, after all, is recovery ahead for 2003?

Puerto Rico Economic Pulse ©

February 2002: The Health Care Reform: Towards a Reality Check

An Analysis and Evaluation of the Challenges it Faces

High quality health care is an important element of international competitiveness and economic well being. Dissatisfaction with existing health care systems has led to a worldwide movement for reform, and Puerto Rico has been no exception. However, managed care is no panacea. It is an experiment in progress, whose results must be judged carefully. Like other economies, Puerto Rico has been facing the urgent need to control costs of its health care system at a time when demand for health care services is rising. The answer to such a challenge has been the Health Care Reform Plan, established by the Government of Puerto Rico in 1993. Today, the Reform Plan faces a critical financial situation. Find out what the situation is, what are its perspectives, and what changes are needed to make it more feasible long-term.

Puerto Rico Economic Pulse ©

January 2002: The Disappearance of the 30-year Treasury Bond

A Review of Economic Events that Made Headlines in 2001

On October 31, 2001 the U.S. Treasury gave traders in the fixed-income markets a Halloween surprise. It announced, without much warning that it would no longer auction 30-year bonds. Traders reacted with an historic buying binge of existing 30-year treasuries. In some ways the long bond`s demise was inevitable. It had been losing market influence throughout the latter part of the 1990s. While it is too early to gauge the ultimate impact of this seemingly dramatic change in the Treasury`s financing tool kit, many issues and questions arise for both the financial markets and the economy. Find out what led to the downfall of the king of the fixed-income markets and what the issues and implications might be for the economy.

Puerto Rico Economic Pulse ©

December 2001: 2001: Legacy of a Year of Uncertainty and Challenges

A Review of Economic Events that Made Headlines in 2001

For Puerto Rico, the year 2001 started with its first female governor, Sila M. Calderón. Her election focused on two key issues: government corruption and a new economic plan. The year ended as it started, with a legacy of economic problems ranging from economic slowdown, fiscal deficits, increasing unemployment, increasing costs of the Health Care Reform Plan, fewer jobs, and many plans and measures attempting to crank the economy. During the year, the terrorist attacks of September 11 struck a sour note throughout the world. The U.S. economy accelerated the cyclical slowdown that started back in March with a recession, moving to an outright contraction. Find out how top economic events shaped the PR economy in 2001. Can the PR economy resume growth? Will the Government be able to at least alleviate some of the key economic challenges the economy faces? These are some of the issues we face in the coming year.

Puerto Rico Economic Pulse ©

November 2001: Bread Upon The Waters

Will the Ports of the Americas Spur the PR Economy?

During the past eight years Puerto Rico has invested $16.6 billion in infrastructure projects ranging from the SuperAqueduct, the Urban Train, major highways such as PR53 and start of Route 66. In September of 2000, then-Governor Pedro Roselló announced yet another megaproject: the transshipment Port of The Americas (PTA). It will be developed in the southern part of the Island, at an estimated cost of $700 million. Expectations call for a great economic boom to the South and PR as a whole. Is this likely? Puerto Rican taxpayers foot part of this bill. What do they get in return? Economic advantages? A mobile showcase promoting Puerto Rico`s ability to adopt technology and display productivity gains in all parts of the world? This issue examines what that economic impact could be and its potential to stimulate the Island economy.

Puerto Rico Economic Pulse ©

October 2001: The Mirror has Two Faces: Part II United States

Understanding the economy before and after September 11, 2001

The September 11th attacks were the last straw that broke the tenuous growth of the US economy at the time. Although a US recession could have happened even without the attacks, now it is unavoidable. The good news is that it is expected to be a short one, not more than two quarters. How will the Puerto Rico economy react? Is it unreal for the Island economy to escape the aftershocks of US and global recessions? As we saw in our August issue and prior to the attacks, the Island economy was already experiencing an economic slowdown. Discover what we view as the correct perspective to avoid a rush into panic resulting from a deepening of the downturn. Find out whether the economic and fiscal stimulus both in the US and PR can pull through.

Puerto Rico Economic Pulse ©

September 2001: The Mirror has Two Faces: Part I United States

Understanding the economy before and after September 11, 2001

American life came to a near standstill on September 11, 2001 when terrorists crashed three passenger planes into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. The disaster cast a war time mentality over the US economy and on through other economies in the rest of the globe. Find out how the difficult campaign in Afghanistan, persistent warnings of new terrorist attacks, and the growing scare over Anthrax have plunged the US and the world into an uncertain new era. While the immediate consequences for directly impacted industries such as travel, tourism, and insurance are clear, the broader economic fallout over the next several quarters and over the next few years remains cloudy. Let`s examine how extensive is the impact of the above events on 2002 and intermediate growth for the US economy.