Puerto Rico Compass ©

2Q-2017 Will Manufacturing Save Puerto Rico?

An analysis of 2nd Quarter 2017 economic indices

Historically, manufacturing was a growth engine in Puerto Rico. Manufacturing’s relevance started with operation Bootstrap and the implementation of Section 931 of the US Internal Revenue Code in the 50s and continued with the implementation of Section 936 in the 70s. Thus, the contribution of manufacturing to the nominal GDP growth grew from 25% in the 50s to 61% in the ‘00s. However, due to the end of Section 936 in 2006, international competition, the end of several drug patents, and the PR fiscal and debt crises, the contribution of manufacturing to the Island’s economic growth fell from 61% in the ‘00s to 46% this decade (2010-2016). Is this sustainable? Worldwide, manufacturing paints a gloomy picture. Although responsible for 8% of total jobs, manufacturing was responsible for 47% of PR’s GDP in 2016. This issue examines the performance of 2Q-2017 indices with emphasis on manufacturing.

Puerto Rico Economic Pulse ©

Jun 2017: So, what’s the Plan for Puerto Rico?

Assessment of Fiscal Plan’s questionable elements
Tensions seem to be flaring between the Fiscal Oversight Supervisory Board (Board), designated per PROMESA law, and the Government of PR as the reality of a steep decline in nominal GNP growth in the Island begins to materialize through the new budget’s fiscal discipline measures. The Fiscal Plan, submitted by the Governor of PR and approved by the Board, charts the route ahead. As more details became available, different groups have become more vocal in criticizing the approved Fiscal Plan (FP). Underlying these concerns are several questions, such as: Will the Fiscal Plan spur investment and economic growth? Are the measures included in the FP enough to restore fiscal discipline and return to a growth path? Are the FP’s assumptions correct? Does the FP adequately asses economic impact? This issue attempts to answer some of these questions from the standpoint of bondholders, renowned economists, government officials, and HCCG.