Puerto Rico Compass ©

Q3 2013: A Commitment to Action in Puerto Rico

An analysis of 3rd Quarter 2013 economic indices

Before the 2007 recession hit, Puerto Rico’s economy had been posting modest but positive real economic growth rates averaging 2.2% from 2002-2005. Jobs grew by 2.0% during the five years leading to the prerecession high. Real Fixed Investment was growing about 1%. Housing demand was high and created expectations that the boom would continue. Unfortunately, the positive growth turned into a bust. Housing values have declined and credit has tightened. Public debt hit an all time high of $70 b in 2012 and the US municipal bond markets have now focused on Puerto Rico and the likelihood of a debt default. Puerto Rico turned a new chapter in 2013. Although it still has a long way to go, the current Administration, only 10 months old, has demonstrated its commitment to action towards economic growth and development. An analysis of six indices for the 3rd quarter this year highlights several moves in the right direction.

Puerto Rico Economic Pulse ©

September 2013: Health Has Lots of Moving Parts – Part I

Setting the stage for Obamacare in Puerto Rico

The Affordable Care Act of 2010, better known as Obamacare, consists of a set of rules, which represent the biggest change in US health public policy since 1965 when Medicare was created. The main goal of this law is to provide affordable health insurance for all US citizens, including Puerto Rico, and to halt the growth of health care spending for increasing numbers of older Americans in need of health care. Not all the provisions of this law will apply in PR and some analysts forecast it could increase insurance premiums by 15% to 20%, which is clearly against Obamacare goals. Will this law help with health conditions in PR? The island faces several health challenges, such as: an ageing population, outward migration of the younger age groups, high health costs and inflation, a fiscal crisis, high prevalence of chronic conditions, poor personal health behavior, and increasing need of health care professionals. All these issues are challenging PR’s population, policy makers, and health. This issue sets the context for the implementation of Obamacare in PR and to some extent enables readers to pass judgment on the effectiveness of health care expenditures in Puerto Rico.